Thursday, January 18, 2007

Better Than Expected...

Well Traders, today was better than expected. The $NDX took a major hit of $34 sending the index to below $1,800. While I expected the index to fall some, I didn't expect this much this fast, not that I am complaining because today's action put my February Iron Condor in a very favorable position.

First, the $NDX broke back below $1,824, which was previous support (now resistance), providing another barrier to a run-up before the February 16 Expiration Date. So now i have $1,824 as resistance, as well as the newly formed diagonal resistance. These may be too tough for the index to break through which is fine by me since that will make the trade successful.

Second, the $NDX hit the 30DMA and stopped, meaning it could be acting as support. We'll have to wait and see what the future holds regarding that.

Finally, the MACD and STO are still showing signs of weakness meaning there still should be some downside to this run, which is fine by me. I am approaching the "sweet spot" of $1,775 which is basically where I started the trade, and puts me $125 to the Bear Call, and $150 to the Bull Put. With only 4 weeks left, that should be enough to make this trade a success, but if the market can fall $34 in one day, it certainly can rise $34 in one day. I still need to be vigilant with my defense. Tomorrow is Options Expiration day for January, so starting next week, the time value should start picking up steam.

Happy Trading!

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