As of now, my December trade is only slightly negative. There is some major economic announcements this week that may make or break my position. Hopefully, it will help me, not hurt. We'll just have to wait and see.
Here is the chart with today's breakout:
I need to be particularly dilligent with my roll point. Since I am still over 4 weeks away from expiration, if the market shoots up I may close my Short position on my Bear Call and let the Long position run because right now, may be the start of a major move upward. So, if that is the case, might as well take advantage of it with my Long.I am still a little bit away from my Upper Roll Point, but another big day will get me there fairly quickly. The only thing that may be in my favor is the STO, which is Overbought, and may signal a downturn is ahead.
Happy Trading!
2 comments:
Where did you get the analysis spreadsheet? If I tried to figure out how to make Excel do that I would miss all these neat trades!
Also, What made you pick those two prices as your roll points? There is such a large area between the roll point and the breakeven levels that I don't understand the reasons. Based on the patterns, I woud expect a pull back to the trendline before it hits the upper breakeven, this should be happening very close to expiration.
I'm new at this, so I just want to make sure I see all sides of it! I too see the barabarians, but I think the reinforcements (i.e. bears) will show up to push them back (briefly) before we get really time critical.
Hey Wayne:
The EXCEL sheets are my own creations, hence the copyright notice on the bottoms. The analysis sheet is actually longer than what you see. I can only fit so much into a "Print Screen" format.
The two roll-out prices are somewhat arbitrary, and somewhat fixed. It is actually based on a recommendation from Michael Drew. People will find their own comfort zone but I felt that if the index approached $40 points (Michael suggests $35) to a strike price with more than 15 days to expiration, then it was probably necessary to move the trade. As it is, the $NDX has moved over 85 points since I placed the trade on 11/3. That represents almost a 70% move on my 125 point Upper Strike spread which is enormous in such a short period of time. That made me nervous.
Looking at the Ascending Channel, I see this going right through my 1850/1875 Bear Call before expiration if it keeps on this torrent pace. I to am expecting (and hoping) for a significant pullback...something we have not had in months on the $NDX. At some point, people are going to start to take profits I believe, and put a halt, or small pullback on the $NDX.
As I mentioned in my blog, I may shorten my trades to 4 weeks, but with more contracts. I don't know yet, but it is something for me to consider.
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